Yesterday was an interesting primary election! It says a lot more than polls do about how those invested in democracy choose to vote! Based on the election info, I would like to make some estimated guesses at the general election. These are using current statistics, as debates and other political unknowns will come into play.
With regards to my support in November, I believe that candidates should seek to solve our intertwined energy and economic crisis. More "rebates" from Democrats or "drilling" from Republicans are both insufficient. I'd love to hear someone try to prove, without blatant misinformation, that they will be. My solution is an annually increasing carbon tax in support of green jobs.
President - I do not see Minnesota as up for grabs. It will go to Obama. Assuming there is no voter disenfranchisement issues this time, only one hour waits in Cleveland this year, Obama should win nationwide.
Coleman - 45%
Franken - 35%
Barkley - 20%
There are about 10% of Republicans who voted for Jack Shepard. These Republicans would most likely not vote for Franken, but would consider Barkley. The biggest loser is clearly Al Franken, because he lost nearly a third of his support to Priscilla Lord Faris. I really don't think he can recover such a hit. He's been trailing Obama for a while in Minnesotan support, and this is a bad hit. And there are parts of Minnesota where she almost surpasses him in support ( in 25A, Franken got 49% of the vote, Faris 46% )!
If Dean Barkley is allowed in the debates, his support could improve. Franken is no longer seen as viable against Coleman, which reduces any form of political momentum. Barkley will need to attract Republican votes that Franken obviously can't if he is to beat Coleman. Being a former U.S. Senator helps Dean Barkley considerably, assuming the media refers to him as one.
US House - 1CD
This race will be close. Still, I think that Brian Davis will beat Tim Walz, who is in his first re-election bid.
US House 3CD
The Democrats shouldn't cry too much about possibly losing 1CD, as Ashwin Madia should win here.
US House - 5CD
Ellison - 84%
Davis - 10%
McGaughey - 6%
I could be overstating Barb Davis White's support. Ellison's opponent Gregg A. Iverson received more votes in the primary than she did. I could also be overstating McGaughey's support, though he may get the anti-Ellison vote. Keith will win easily by double digits.
US House - 6CD
This is another close race. I would really like to see the last of Michelle Bachmann. Perhaps Tinklenberg will be able to gain enough support from moderate Republicans who do not feel Bachmann truly represents them.
US House - 7CD
Blue dog Democrat Collin Peterson should easily win.
In Federal races, it is difficult to really change current trends months before an election. These races tend to be media dependent and less "activist" oriented. Though get out the vote efforts are still very important.
As far as local races go, we will see. It will be up to local candidates to ensure that they stay ( or become ) engaged with the residents of their district. Candidates who accurately reflect their community's needs stand the best chance to be chosen to serve.
Minneapolis School Board
The voters of Minneapolis always support DFL endorsed. My fave non-DFL candidate, Mary Buss, did not make it past the primary. However, Doug Mann did and is seeking Green Party endorsement. I still like Lydia Lee and Jill Davis. Anyone else will have to prove themselves, assuming I vote for a third candidate.